Geological uncertainty is often a critical risk factor as it defines the outcome and return on a field development over the life of well.
Extensive efforts and resource is invested to understand and describe the geology and capture/quantify the uncertainties.
As the field matures, increased data captured, improves the models, impacting development decisions. However, the economic value of the project remains dependent on the ability to mitigate the risks associated with remaining uncertainties.
For example, uncertainty associated with the distribution of high permeability streaks in the oil reservoir deliver risk associated with water or gas breakthrough, declining oil production and reduced sweep efficiency impacting total reserves and the project cash flow.
Integration of key uncertainties in well planning often ensure good prediction of the reserves and the probability of success, however the choice of well technology and completion design will control the method optimize and act to mitigate the risks long-term.